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Not This Ass My FriendI wanted to get this out before Fogg gets lit up today. I realized that when I said last week that Fogg and Williams were consistent, I could have very well been talking out of my ass. So I did a little research. Good thing I'm an engineer; better thing mlb.com stat pages copy and paste easily into Excel. The games started, average inning pitched, average earned runs allowed and ERA with standard deviation of the six main Pirate starters this season:Pitcher GS IP/GS ER/GS ERA Mark Redman 26 6.15 ± 1.44 3.27 ± 2.15 4.78 ± 3.33The standard deviation is a measure how far away any particular instance of data is from an average. For instance, using only this statistical information, I can say with about 70% confidence that Josh Fogg will go 5 to 6 2/3 innings and give up between 1.43 and 5.23 runs. That really isn't saying much. Doubling the deviation will go up to 95% confidence but then your looking at something like 0 to 7 runs, so what's the point? There is little value in using this data to predict anything, but it's a good indication of what you have come to expect from a pitcher. Small sample sizes inflate deviations so that explains the error on Duke's innings, however it makes his ER allowed even more impressive considering he's the most consistent on the team. So because of those small samples throw out Duke and Perez. Amongst the rest of the team, I'm right, the smaller the deviation the more consistent the pitcher. Williams and Fogg are the best on the team. I'm not saying they're great, I'm just saying you know what you're going to get. Unlike Redman, Wells, and Perez who show flashes of brilliance and then suck the next week. I also suggested that the Pirates look for someone consistent. It's a bitch typing all that out, so here's just the age, games, and ERA for some soon to be free agent right-handed pitchers with 4.00 - 4.75 ERAs: Pitcher Age GS ERA Jason Johnson 31 25 4.09 ± 3.00Scott Elarton is the best on the list. In fact he was the best in every category and amongst a few other people I also looked at. So I called up my trusted Cleveland Indians fan for a scouting report: this is the same guy who told me Matt Lawton was lazy and over-rated, so I trust him. His assessment, "He is VERY consistent. Every time I see it's his turn to pitch I think 'Shit! Elarton's pitching,' but normally it ends up alright." So am I suggesting that the Pirate's sign Scott Elarton? Well no. If they (and they should) get rid of Fogg, but are insistent on acquiring another righty, then Elarton would be my suggestion: he'll be cheaper then most and probably win you 10+ games. I'll keep an eye on him. But we don't need more pitching, we need the pitching we have to show more balance. I imagine that responsibility is on the coaches and the players. Since we obviously have nobody who understands this already, maybe it would be worthwhile to bring in someone that does. posted by Rory at 6:45 PM | |
A Question About ContractsI'm curious as to how Mark Redman's contract works. I understand the $4.9 million team option, and the $4.5 million player option, but I don't understand how those are approved. When we were talking about exercising our option, Redman said he wouldn't accept and test the open market. Do we have the same refusal capability if Redman exercises his option, or is it more of I'm taking this, your stuck with me? It could be the latter, or worse yet it could be that we exercised our option a while ago and it's still on the table.I will be hoping that Redman finishes the season in much the same way that he started, if not for that the Pirates may win a few games down the stretch, but that Redman gets the idea that he's worth more then five-million dollars, and we aren't forced to pay him or play him next year. posted by Rory at 1:09 PM | |
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The SplitsSome lefty/righty splits of our positions, the numbers are AVG/OBA/SLG sorted by position and at-bats:Player vs. LHP vs. RHP Jason Bay .383/.486/.704 .283/.369/.524 (it justs looks nice) Daryle Ward .216/.262/.289 .293/.358/.480 Rob mackowiak .245/.310/.340 .274/.347/.424 Humberto cota .231/.261/.415 .238/.289/.360 Jack Wilson .236/.288/.373 .232/.275/.344OF: Michael Restovich makes a case for playing time vs. left-handers, that's fine by me. Duffy has the center-field position, if for some unforsaken reason Tike Redman needs to start it I hope its, oddly enough, against left-handers. McLouth doesn't have enough ABs to make any discernable assertation, but I hope he's Duffy's back-up and the right-fielder when Mackowiak is at 3rd against RHP. 1B: People have talked about this already, but Eldred isn't doing much against lefties. His OBA is actually lower then his average because of a sac-fly. One must think that he would come around. Despite the poor numbers there is no statistical reason to justify him not being the everyday starter. For the case of he's a rookie and shouldn't play everyday crowd, then let's hope his two days off a week come against extreemely-hard-for-rookies-to-hit-right-handers so that Daryle Ward as a replacement isn't completely useless. 3B: This is really why I posted all this. Dirty's numbers against LHPs are unreasonably good, go with it. As for the other split, I can understand having him out there if we have the Mark Redman type on the mound and we expect a lot of ground balls, otherwise he's just pushing Mackowiak to the outfield. I could care less about who gets playing time at third, but forcing Rob to the outfield takes starts away from McLouth, and I want to see what Nate can do. C: Cota and Doumit's numbers are fairly even between splits with Doumit's being better overall, solidifying the case that Doumit should be the starter and Cota the backup. I expect to see Cota in day games, against pitchers he's got good numbers against, and with pitchers he "works well with" if Lloyd is still clinging to that unfounded idea. This still gives Doumit more then a majority of the starts. SS/2B: I also just threw these in to show how fairly consistent Jack and Castillo are between pitchers. When you think about it, it's kind of sad that the two positions other then Bay that we are sure about are at the bottom of the order. But they're what we got and they'll hopefully both be better next year. I can live with that. What's funny is that the Pirates are doing this right, other then the 3B situation, but that is kind of nitpicky. The guys I want to get playing time are also the guys who are best at their position. What I expect to see as a lineup: vs. LHP vs. RHPPost from now on will frequently be why I'm upset that tonights lineup didn't look like this. For instance today, Freddy at third, Mackowiak in right, RHP on the mound. I guess I already explained why i don't like that. posted by Rory at 6:06 PM | |
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An Interesting StatI've been searching around for about a week looking for a quote I read from Lloyd about having to balance getting the rookies in with trying to win ball games. If you remember seeing this quote let me know and I can totally punt this first paragraph. Anyway...There are five legitimate rookie on this team right now, they all started last night: Doumit, Duke, Duffy, Eldred, and McLouth. The Pirates record since July 17th (Duffy's call-up) sorted by the number of rookies who started: Rookies Record When Duke StartsI include the record when Duke starts to point out that the records aren't terribly skewed just because Duke was the starter. Back to the quote I don't have. Not only do I have a problem with that considering the 90 losses we're fast approaching. But I also have a problem considering that it makes no sense. There is no balance, when you don't play rookies you loose. Playing three or more may not continue at a .800 pace, but it can't be any worse then what you get when you let Chris Duffy alone in center to fend for himself. At this point three is the minimum I want to see. Anything less means that Daryle Ward is starting or *shudder* Tike Redman is in the outfield. Three is OK, an occasional four and I'll be happy. Tonight we start three, we have a 4-0 lead. posted by Rory at 7:38 PM | |
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They've Done It!Sweet mother of God, Jesus in heaven, holiness! They've heard my prayers. Five rookies! All five of them starting today. Duffy's leading off! The strike out combination of Eldred and Doumit has been broken up! And Duke is pitching!posted by Rory at 7:11 PM | |
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Scooped!I have it from a very reliable source (a guy who lives in Mobile, AL and has an apartment in San Diego) that Brian Giles will be an Atlanta Brave next season. I feel like I'm on the inside now.In other news, why does Tike Redman ever start? Don't we have three other left-handed center fielders who are better then him both offensively and defensively? posted by Rory at 11:35 PM | |
3rd Base and BeyondFreddy sucked yesterday, flailing about at every pitch. I don't know if it was just a bad game or a right-handed pitcher or what, but he just stunk it up. I figured for the rest of the season a straight platoon with him and Mackowiak would be the set-up, but I'm just a stupid Pirate fan, what do I know?The Q&A today basically says the solution at third won't be the Joe Randa type, which is kind of disappointing to me since I was really hoping the Pirates might sign Joe Randa this off-season. Am I the only one who doesn't think our offensive problems are all that serious? Consider a line-up that features Bay, C. Wilson, Eldred, Doumit, and Castillo. Each one of those players has the potential to hit over 20 home-runs. I seem to remember a big fuss being made when the Young/Giles/Sprague/Martin combo banged 20+ in 1998, so I think that's pretty good. Throw in a lead-off centerfielder who gets on base better then Tike Redman, a right-fielder who doesn't get thrown off the bases as much as Matt Lawton, the Joe Randa type at third who can put up a .150 higher OPS then Freddy Sanchez, and I think we can put up a lot more runs. Minus the Joe Randa, we have all those players here now, doesn't seem like a dearth of offense to me. A bigger problem to me seems to be the pitching. I know we have arms, but its the consistency that's a problem. It's safe to assume we have Perez, Duke, and Williams set for next year, probably Kip in the middle somewhere and a guy in the system already to round it out. But I don't mind bringing someone in with a 4.50 ERA, just as long as we are getting those six innings and 3 runs every time he goes out there. I think this is why Dave Williams has been successful and why I like Josh Fogg, although Fogg has really been loosing it lately. In the beginning of this season, I thought this might be one of the worst Pirate teams I've ever seen. But unlike most other fans, I thought it was smart not to waste money to make a horrible team bad when you have half your roster floating around in AAA. I've criticized management and ownership a lot this season, but when I actually look at the situation, seems like the Pirates are set up pretty well and are in a good position to sign one or two above average free agents (who aren't 80 years old) and be competitive next year, and more so the next couple years. That is of course if we're not being lied to about payroll and such, which isn't guaranteed. posted by Rory at 3:00 PM | |
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I'll Tell Ya, I Get No RespectI'm off on another weekend excursion, this time back to Pittsburgh. If the Buccos were home I would have made sure I took another day to go see them, but alas. I got home from a busy Saturday and asked my niece what happened with the Pirate game. "one-nothing she says." Awesome, a pitchers duel, would have liked to see it. It was 2 AM so it wasn't until this morning I got Sportscenter highlights, they went something like "Roger Clemens, Roger Clemens. Roger Clemens, Roger Clemens, and too bad for Roger Clemens." If I didn't know much about baseball I'd think that we didn't even have to play defense this game, I like our chances in that situation. We all know the Buccos get no respect; frankly, they probably don't deserve much right now.. I'm kind of rushing this entry since I am currently trying to enjoy today's game with the family up the street, so I'll write later about how that National respect might be changing shortly.posted by Rory at 2:37 PM | |
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Nate the SnakeI may have flaked concerning our catching situation, but I will not flake on the attitude that Matt Lawton was a detriment to this team. That's why I don't care that Jody Gerut has been put on the disabled list. Although, thanks to his first pitch-out ability, I'm quickly becoming a believer that Jody Gerut is also a detriment to this team.That means Nate McLouth is back in Pittsburgh. It's too bad he and Chris Duffy are vying for the same role on the team. Despite the plan to go with him in right field, I expect to see a bit of McLouth in center while Duffy works through his injury. And with what I expect to be a mess of long-shot right field prospects next year, we may have Nate and Duffy battling out for centerfield next spring. In the meantime, and I know it's a longshot considering Eldred is a righty, but just once I'd like see a game in which McLouth, Duffy, Eldred, and Doumit all start. For kicks, lets do it on a night Duke is pitching. posted by Rory at 11:11 AM | |
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A Change of Heart/PhilosophySo while I was gone last weekend I met a man on the roof of the Holiday Inn parking garage in Duluth, MN. He played stickball for a college in Evansville, IN. Both of us had just struck out with the same girl and we started talking it up. He played outfield, a converted catcher, and he hated it.It was about this time a lightbulb went off in my head. We talked about it. Catchers have this attitude about them, a swaggy confidence that comes with being involved in every play of the game. You stick them in the outfield and they fall asleep. Their entire attitude changes and it affects the rest of the game. I have been a Cota proponent, and I would like to set the record straight. I like Cota because he's an above average for a catcher (or at least was until visiting strike out island) who isn't overpaid. That's exactly the type of thing that you can actually get a return for in a trade, but he isn't part of the solution. Humberto Cota will not be on the next Pirate playoff team. Neither will Kip Well, Craig Wilson, or Josh Fogg: all guys I like. Team chemistry does not build a winner, and fan chemistry doesn't either. I could put together a lineup of my favorite Buccos over the last decade and it still wouldn't have much of a chance of finishing over five-hundred. And it's time for me to accept the fact that good guys aren't always good players. So Doumit should start, because you're just messing with him if you do anything else. Cota can play, but not if he's holding back progress. Same with Fogg, the guy (except for the last month) keeps us in games and wins more then he looses, but he's not part of the future and has virtually no trade value, plus we have a lefty copy of him already on the team. If another guy is deserving of a shot to start, Fogg is the guy who needs to take the hit. I hate to say it, but it's true. If something of value is offered for Wells or Wilson, we should take it. It will be tough for me as a fan. I don't know how to root for a winner, I only know how to cheer on nice guys. I'll still scream the loudest when the good guy comes up big. And that next clutch Cota pinch hit, I'll praise him here first. But from now on, I'm fully embracing the goal. posted by Rory at 4:10 PM | |
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For Shame Hardcore Pirate FansI've been gone since Friday and just got back in last night. First thing I did was check the Pirates website: Bucs Trade Lawton. Then I did a little jig, then I went to bed.This morning I returned to work, and when I procrastinate I find myself in a shitstorm of trade analysis. According to newspapers and fans, Lawton went from being a detriment to the team to being the best leadoff hitter in the National League in one Sunday afternoon. We all believe Slawo sucks and is over-rated. Yet we expect that we should get more then a can of beans for him. I'm just conjecturing, but I'm pretty sure no GM outside of Pittsburgh is that naive. This is why signing over-the-hill veterans for trade value doesn't really work: you sign crap and hope you get lucky so you can trade it for younger crap and hope you get lucky again. If you really want more then a can of beans then I got a can in my pantry that the label came off of. It could be anything, you give me Lawton and the can is yours, I'll have him do my laundry and stuff. Oh you want to throw in cash too, sweet! Littlefield's biggest problem as far as I can tell was insisting he would "not accept any deal that did not include a Major League Player." This thinking is flawed because you're more likely to not get lucky with Major League crap then minor crap. Example: Say you have 10 Chad Hermansens on your MLB roster, at the end of the season, you have 10 Chad Hermansens. Woopdee Fuck. Now say you have 10 Chad Hermansens on your AA team. In a couple years you probably have six Hermansens, a couple Tike Redmans, a Chris Duffy, and maybe, just maybe 1 Brian Giles. Who knows? But there's at least a chance. Not to mention that the real reason Lawton had to go was to give too many outfield prospects a chance to play. So Littlefield has poor reasoning, but why does he think like that? Could it possibly be because fans are clamoring to stop rebuilding and field a winner already, and increase payroll. Meanwhile, there is nothing in our lower minors and the only thing to buy is Mike Lowell. Yet somehow being more knowledgeable then your casual fan, we buy into this. Shit people, this is exactly how it got jacked the last time. Management got themselves too attached to players who weren't part of the future just so they could make it look like they didn't mess it up. All the while the minor league system withered away and died. By the time those guys sucked up to their potential, there was nothing left to replace them so we got bigger pieces of crap to jump in and play. Oi, I could go on. I will on another date. The point to the Pirates is this. Forget about what fans want, or what you think fans want; even the best of us will change our minds in an inning break, and until you make it to the post-season whatever you decide will be wrong anyway. Just worry about how you're are going to put together a solid team, and if your thinking is anything other then that, then please go away! posted by Rory at 4:57 PM | |
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This is a blog about the Pittsburgh Pirates. My vision: to write about the games at the games. Want to email me? Make it out to rory at bleache... you know the rest. |
