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Tuesday, July 26, 2005

As My Mind Drifts Away From Baseball

During the bottom of the seventh on the Marlins feed they showed some girls being interviewed because they were part of some Fish Dancing Team. Being from Pittsburgh I'm against cheerleaders. Being a baseball traditionalist, I'm especially against them on a baseball field. That being said, these girls were ridiculously hot, and I need to visit Miami.

The ensuing catch by Chris Duffy was also hot, as was his bunt single the next inning. Not extremely beautiful woman hot, but you get the drift. I know we think of him as a future fourth outfielder, but he has shown excellent fundamentals and a dazzling glove. If he can post a OBA above .350 I see no reason why he can't be out leadoff hitter of the future.

posted by Rory at 11:14 PM |
 
Monday, July 25, 2005

Written Garbage

Every outlet of Pirate news I have has talked about John Grabow recently, and I have to say: guys, it's a little late.

Mike Gonzalez went on the DL June 23. Grabow, in his first stint as a true lefty set-up man, had his most impressive outing of the season on June 26, forcing two Cardinals to pop-up with the bases loaded. I gave him credit,. Since then he has pitched 8 innings (not above the pace he was on) and has a 5.63 ERA. Also his GO-AO ratio has flip-flopped and he gave up his first homerun of the season.

Is it impressive that he has only allowed one inherited runner to score, yes. But it was more impressive when he only let one inherited runner to score a month ago and he had just pitched in two games in which he came in with less then two outs and the bases loaded.

I've been more than disappointed with most of what I've read lately. The team has sucked, I want investigation into why that is, I want justification for it so that I can either understand or criticize it. I want journalism, not fluff. Is it really that difficult to write a non opinion infused article, relying on fact, about the state we're in?

posted by Rory at 1:44 PM |
 
Thursday, July 21, 2005

My Ultimatum

Is it too much of a stretch for me to say that the Pirates haven't lost a one run game since June 29th? Probably. The Buccos have made a concerted effort to make an enemy out of even the staunchest fans. Like I've said before, baseball is now less interesting to me then a lot of things, but I still have a hold on it. That hold depends on one thing. In ten days or less the Pirates must trade Matt Lawton.

Don't think I'm expecting a big return here, if I turn on the game and see a pineapple playing right field I'll be happy, but the great Slawo does nothing to help this team. If he can't be traded he should be released, eat the money I don't care, I want to see MY team play, he's not a part of that. If he's still on this roster come August 1st, I may be calling it quits.

posted by Rory at 4:19 PM |
 
Monday, July 18, 2005

The Problem With Cubans

I think I should get out of the prediction business, in fact forget think, I am getting out of the prediction business and back into the what-I-thinks business. Pirates call up Duffy, which is less bad then McClouth in my mind since I have been lead to believe Duffy's just a 4th outfielder anyway, however, so is Tike Redman. Rather would see the younger guy start.

About the title, I thought it was awesome that of players nobody ever heard of would have a chance to compete against the "World's Best" next year. And hopefully school them to prove how much of a sham the World Baseball Classic might be (how can something be classic in it's first year). I might not get that chance though since Cuba seems to be pansying out.

Also, Mark Cuban is in the news. People are salivating at the prospect of him buying the Pirates. Don't get your hopes up, for once I have FACTual information that's actually of use. Cuban sang "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" Saturday. Afterward he sat in the Cubs booth where he mentioned to the announcers that if the opportunity came up he would be interesting in being involved with an organization such as the Cubs; basically, verbatim what he said to Pittsburgh media. While I think it's more likely he'd come to Pittsburgh, I wouldn't look too much into it. But that won't stop people from dreaming.

Cuban has been successful in Dallas because he's a marketing genius, responsive to fans, a competent business man, and a fan of the game. But the thought that he would make the Pirates better because he's a billionare and can buy us a team is ludicrous. In Dallas he got people to come to the games before that team was good, then ran with it by drafting and scouting well, and treating his players and fans the way they deserve to be treated. Some of the results are a reflection on his intelligence, some are a reflection of his luck. He dishes out money now, but only to keep the players there that deserve to be, or to fill an occasional hole, but not five of them. Be assured he's pulling in a lot more then he gives out.

The other half of that argument is why would you want that? I left for college hating the Yankees, a team that outspent everyone and won the last three World Series. What I learned at school (which obviously wasn't engineering) is that the only reason to hate them is jealousy. 29 other teams would have killed to have brought up those kind of stars through their system and have the means to pay them through their stardom. Given the choice to have that kind of organization we all would have went for it instantaneously. The true enemies were the Arizona Diamondbacks of the world: the teams that truly did buy their players and had a fluffy fan base.

Think about that, I want to grow with my team, I want to root for the Jason Bays, Jack Wilsons, and Jose Castillos because I struggled with them when they struggled; I have a vested interest. I don't want to go to the ballpark to see a team filled with Matt Lawtons. I don't want to go to the ballpark just because this year could be the year. Dare I get labeled a fair-weather fan in a *gasp* bad sports town. NO! Would Cuban be a good owner? Absolutely, but he wouldn't do anything different team-building-wise that current ownership isn't already doing. He just wouldn't suck at it.

With that rant out of the way, tonight I'll be listening to the start of the ballgame, but I won't be finishing it. I'm going bowling, which means that I've officially reached the point in the season where having a life is more important than following baseball. From now on expect more of my posts to be less game opinions and more of what you just saw here.

posted by Rory at 7:09 PM |
 
Saturday, July 16, 2005

Banging My Head on a Wall

So Craig is out... AGAIN. The worst part of this to me is that it puts Daryle Ward back as everyday first baseman. Not that it matters, for the life of me I can't understand how he started 4 out of 5 games since Craig came back. The guy needed to sit for about a week straight, regardless of the dexterity of the opposing teams starting pitcher.

I really would have liked to spend tomorrow evening writing about Ward (and Tike Redman for that matter, since they are much the same situation). Much talk has been made about getting rid of him, much has been made about him being a piece of the puzzle. Both of these are wrong. Ward is a fine player and completely in the Pirates price range, even next year. But he's in that price range because he isn't a Major League starter, he isn't even a Major League platoon player. He's a Major League back-up and lefty power pinch-hitter, nothing more. That's not something easy to find, but you aren't going to get anything in a trade for it either.

Oh well, expect a major lack of production at 1B due to the lack of time off Ward received. I don't see it picking up until somebody other then Pirate bloggers start saying something about it, or until we trade for a MLB ready first baseman, which I'd rather not see. Also, the call up is either going to be McClouth or Ross. If it's Ross it means they see Doumit as an outfielder for now, if it's McClouth it means the Pirate Management is a bunch of shysters.

posted by Rory at 9:58 PM |

What to Say About Today's Game

Hrmmmm... So. Can Duke pitch everyday?

posted by Rory at 8:23 PM |
 
Friday, July 15, 2005

There's No Crying in Sports Bars

So when I left for the bar it was 1-0, when I got to the bar it was 6-1, and now obviously, I'm back from the bar. Kerry Wood has two RBIs, that's more then the whole Pirates team so far; I hope we don't jump out to a 1-0 lead tomorrow or Greg Maddux is going to hit two homeruns in the same inning.

Jose Castillo has a chance to hit for the cycle, and the distinction of doing so when the rest of your team doesn't get a hit. But to do that would require his teammates finding some other way to get on base, TWICE. Plus, if he did get that chance I would probably accuse him of not having the best interests of the team on his mind while stretching a double into a triple.

I'm about to get back to work. Vogelsong is in, looks like Snell on Tuesday.

posted by Rory at 4:39 PM |

The Waiting Game

The Vogelsong/Snell watch is on. They both must be hoping not to pitch soon, seeing how the next one to get action most likely won't start a game in Tuesday's double-header vs. the Astros. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Vogelsong, just because I'm feeling crazy.

We may not find out today though: Josh Fogg 4 pitches, 4 strikes, 3 outs. Good going. Just look out for Neifi Perez.

posted by Rory at 2:32 PM |
 
Thursday, July 14, 2005

My Bad

I didn't know today's game was at 2 o'clock. Evidently neither did the Pirates. Two hits? Mark Prior himself got that many. The joys of having a real job is that you don't have to do real work, so I will be taking an extended lunch break to watch the boys in a sports bar tomorrow, that sounds like a plan.

posted by Rory at 11:36 PM |
 
Wednesday, July 13, 2005

The Last Post About "The Clutch" I'll Ever Write

Seems like a lot of hoopla has been made by Pat and over at Bucs Dugout about the most recent Q&A, particularly Dejan Kovacevic's response to a comment touting Cota and his clutch hitting. Seems like Dejan is missing the point (which Charlie defines absolutely what that point is in his post) and also placating some readership in the process.

As I mention in Pat's comments, I like the Q&A now. Maybe it's another relativity thing, but I think it has the tone of a fan. It almost reads more like a blog and less like a newspaper column, only this blogger has access to players, managers, and scouts. But when you talk as a fan, you say irrational things sometimes, you talk about how you feel about the player and not what his stats say. I like that about the column though, because I can figure out the stats on my own, it's the honest perspective of someone that has that access that I need help with.

Charlie is a little more entailed, doing a triple backflip off the thirty meter platform into a pool of debate on whether clutch hitting is a skill. -- I'm sorry, are you guys upset that I used a diving reference in my Pirate blog? -- There is a couple things I have issue with here. What I find so confusing about Charlie's post is that for as much as it criticizes Dejan for hand-waving and not providing evidence supporting his argument, it does a lot of hand-waving and provides little evidence to support his argument. In fact I'm still not sure whether his argument primarily is that Dejan sucks or clutch isn't a skill. I also think he sounds slightly more enraged then he really was since the article disagreed with his opinion of Cota, although, personally, I thought Dejan downplayed Cota quite a bit, and certainly didn't hymn his praise a fraction as much as I do.

Secondly, the post does much to criticize Kovacevic for the treatment of his readership. Truth be told, I take offense when someone tells me I'm not getting out to games or I'm paying too much attention to stats. But when that was written in the Q&A, it wasn't addressed to people like us. We are a group of people who eat, breathe, drink, and in my case, sleep Pirate baseball: so much so that we write or read weblogs about it. Last time I checked the city of Pittsburgh wasn't beating down the walls of PNC Park to get into a game. There is a whole mess of people whose only barometer of the team is what they catch on the late news (if they're up) or the box score they check when they're taking a dump the next morning. I know this first hand, I'm the youngest of eleven siblings, each one of them will claim to be a Pirate's fan; I guarantee only one of them knows who the last team we played was. Hell, before 1997 I had never seen more then 12 games a season because I didn't have cable, and before you ask, yes, these people have no restraint in sharing their opinions with someone they don't know.

Are we so vain to assume that we are the only ones with an opinion worth emailing a sportswriter about. Remember when Meyer wrote the Q&A, half those questions seemed like they came from someone who hadn't watched baseball in six years. I'm certain Paul picked those on purpose so that he could sound intelligent everytime and never worry about being wrong. I think Dejan has done a great job of picking much more legitimate issues, but with that comes a risk: if you address something that divides people, those who disagree might not think to highly of you, but I don't think he writes like he feels superior to us. In fact, I suspect the "I know better than you" mentality pervades the Pirate blogisphere much more then it affects the Q&A. I know I've been guilty of it.

For the record, I don't think clutch is a skill, but I do believe it's a trend. Players gaining a reputation for being clutch may play with more confidence and be more apt to continue being successful in such situations. Likewise, the converse can be true, and those trends can turn on a dime. Take Daryle Ward for example. He was certainly clutch late May after hitting two game winning home-runs in a week. For whatever reason those opportunities start coming in short supply and then suddenly it's a month later and you haven't hit any homeruns since then. Welcome to the other side my friend.

If that sounds like piecing words together with little evidence to support it, it probably is. I have no definitive statistic on what clutch is, but I know what goes into to my thinking on whether or not a player is clutch. So you want a stat, I didn't go to engineering school for nothing:

clutch coefficient =          (clutch hits)^2          
-----------------------------------
(games since first clutch hit used)
"Clutch hits" is a subjective term, different for everyone who calls themselves a baseball fan, but I think we all agree they exist. The other contributing factors are volume and time. I squared the hits because I think there is added value to stringing clutch hits together, and the games used in the sample diminishes the value as more games go without additional clutch hits. So what's good? I don't know, let's say 1.00 for now, maybe if I'm extremely bored at work tomorrow I'll do some research. Nowhere in my equation is "not coming through in the clutch" part of it. It's difficult to find some corollary stat that actually makes sense because clutch hits are so unique. Name any stat, any stat at all, and I could give you examples of clutch hits that aren't included and clutch hits that are.

In addition to that, while I don't feel that being a clutch guy is something you can count on as a scoutable ability, I believe your performance in the clutch is. I find it hard to believe that after Tike Redman's bat on Friday some scout didn't write somewhere "swings defensively when game is on the line." Now I don't know this for a fact, and only someone with access to players, managers, and scouts could find that out. That in fact is my biggest complaint about Dejan's Q&A, how he didn't take advantage of that. However, I could have stated that in one paragraph (which I just did) instead of in drawn out and inflamatory post.

So those are my thoughts on the skill of being clutch, but I could be wrong, very wrong. This argument only extends to hitting. Pitching is a different story. The entire concept of a closer is predicated on being clutch, of having a reputation as such, and performing at a level that makes fans, writers, and scouts think that pitching in the ninth inning is a skill that you are born with. Do I even need to hash out that argument. Just the presence of that little note merits to me almost any argument one might have about that extending to hitting.

posted by Rory at 11:39 PM |

Humberto on the Brain

I had another Pirate dream the other day. Seriously, I'm not making this up just to have some allegory for a prediction I have about the team, I just really do think about them this much.

So evidently, in the dream, I'm good friends with all the Pirates. I'm walking down the street behind Doumit and someone else, I'm presuming someone recently called up from Indianapolis, but I can't remember. Doumit is talking about how he wants more playing time but then drops this bomb:

"And for some reason they still think of me as a right fielder. It's not like the guy ahead of me at catcher is any good."

"You mean Cota," I say angrily, "And he is good."

Flash forward and I'm sitting down to lunch with Humberto (again, somehow in this dream I have become best friends with the entire team, I think I was playing for them and batting .238, which depending on what position I was at, might not necessarily have been a downgrade) I totally NARC on Doumit with Cota and he's disappointed. Cota wasn't too angry but did say he would get him back. And then it fades out.

When I awoke I was angry, I still had some of the feelings I was experiencing during the dream, as if it really happened. I could remember my discussion during lunch; how I discussed how Doumit must think that he is the next Pirate savior, who could single handedly bring the team back to respectability if only he could have his way. I also remember saying that if that's how he feels I don't want him.

That was just a dream, I do personally like Ryan Doumit, and I want him to do well. However, I don't think he should be doing it at catcher. Not with Cota back there. In addition to being an above average catcher there is also his clutchability which I noticed much earlier in the season. I will argue intensively about his legitimacy as a major league catcher.

But even the Stat Geek doesn't agree with me. He argues, "Cota, 26, could well be an average catcher, maybe even a bit better. That would be fine, but why not shoot for more?" I love the geek, but I think he misses something. Doumit has potential to be a great catcher I agree, he also has a potential to be an above average right fielder, or as I will predict right now, an above average corner infielder. There's nothing wrong with going for an upgrade at a position, but it's important to evaluate the relative upgrade. We have depth at catcher, with Cota, Paulino in AAA and Walker even further down. We are below average in two outfield positions and both corners. The benefit of going from below average to above at those positions is greater then the benefit of going from above average to great at catcher, assuming Doumit even will be great, which is not a given, especially if he can't show more plate discipline.

Secondly, say Doumit does become the best hitter on the team. Make a case for your best hitter sitting 10% of the games, which is what almost any catcher not named Jason Kendall is going to do. You don't really want your best players to be catchers because those positions have to rest regularly, they can't possibly start every game.

However, I will say that it is important, defensively and for general all around baseball sake, to pick a position for someone and stick to it. I'm okay with Doumit switching between catcher and right field for now because we don't know how Paulino, Duffy, or McClouth are going to turn out, and as a starter behind the plate there is still little chance of Cota getting more then 70% of the starts. Doumit is young and can handle it, as long as he's playing almost everyday I have few complaints. But eventually he will start regularly at one position or another. This goes beyond Doumit. I'd like to see Craig stay put at first, and Bay stay in left. I'd like to see Mackowiak stick primarily to the outfield, however as a utility player (which I still consider him to be) I can accept and encourage his versatility all over.

posted by Rory at 5:55 PM |
 
Saturday, July 09, 2005

Good Luck Mr. Ross

I was thinking yesterday that it might be tough to say a guy who just cracked two homeruns in a rehab stint, needs until next Wednesday to get his stroke back. Turns out someone else was thinking that too, so surprise Pittsburgh, Craig Wilson is starting at first base. I could find no news release for this anywhere, so it took me a few minutes to figure out who wasn't on the team, only to discover that David Ross was optioned back to AAA. Not entirely unexpected, It will be interesting to see how Mark Redman does in his next start.

Not only does this mean that Ward goes back to platooning, but based on the lineup I'm guessing so is Rob Mackowiak, although he will continues to play in more games then he doesn't. Can't say I disagree, but if I'm Lloyd, after not being able to do wrong last night, I would push every button I was remotely thinking about pushing.

posted by Rory at 7:11 PM |
 
Thursday, July 07, 2005

Just One Sacrifice Fly, Please

I want something very extravagant and noticeable to happen everytime the Pirates leave a runner at third with less then two outs. I'm thinking maybe something like the K board, with some other letter, that I could hang to the side of the foul pole in right field. I'll turn over a new letter when it happens, then I could clap and do a high kick while touching my toes in mid-air.

That might not be enough though, not for this team. I could cut off one of my digits whenever it happens and mail it to 115 Federal St. I'd be down to nine fingers today, would have been eight if it weren't for Humberto Cota; someone explain to me again why he isn't considered a legitimate Major League catcher?

Congratulations Zack Duke, hopefully the first of many. You also join Josh Fogg as the only Pirate pitcher with a career winning record.

posted by Rory at 9:45 PM |

The Under-Appreciated Bucs Notes

The quote of all quotes from the mind of Slawo:

"That's what it takes to win," said Lawton. "If you are just out there playing the game and not trying to do the little things that's going to help you get the advantage, of course you're going to be a team that's not going to hit well with guys in scoring position."
Taken out of context, one might feel a connection with Lawton; he said, "do the little things" he must be an outstanding player. Under further inspection, the focus of Lawton's comments is towards the practice of sign stealing. Now, he may be right about how everyone does it, I don't know. I do know that my ninth grade algebra teacher would constantly brag about how he could figure signs out after an inning, so it's not unexpected.

But Matt Lawton? Little things? Like stealing signs? No. You worry about catching the ball, backing up plays down the line, and sliding into second base. Maybe if you watch the pitcher and not the catcher, you might notice if he's making a pick-off move. I hate you and I want you gone.

The notebook goes on to inadvertently provide more reason for McClendon's release by discussing his handling of Ryan Doumit along with the other mid-season call ups under his tenure. Then it set's up Duke for a cruddy outing tonight, and mentions Craig's nack for hitting singles in his rehab stint, picking up right where he left off.

posted by Rory at 6:30 PM |

You Don't Say

Ryan, a friend of mine with a not so baseball oriented weblog, has a great game story from Tuesday night. Scroll down past the bullet points if you just want the baseball stuff.

posted by Rory at 12:41 PM |
 
Wednesday, July 06, 2005

Mark Redman's Pity Party

Mark Redman has three people to blame for his loss today:

1. David Ross - If you are going to have a catcher that is exclusively your battery-mate, pick someone who can at least put the ball in play. It's hard to get run support when you have a black-hole, inning-killer batting seventh everytime you pitch. I like Ross, I think he is a good presence and a smart ball-player, but he's going to need to cut down the strikeout rate.

2. Daryle Ward - Suddenly Mr. Homer When It Counts can't hit a sacrifice fly and has no clutch hitting ability whatsoever. He can also compress doubles into singles and can't throw the ball home. I'm so glad I didn't jump on that bandwagon. I will say that he works harder and is a better person then I thought, but what he makes up there he looses in skill.

3. Mark Redman - Say what you want about White blowing it, going six 1 run innings without your team scoring is no excuse to walk the third and fourth runs to load the bases with no outs. No matter what the score or how many hard luck losses you've had, you go and you pitch your game, you can't do it all yourself, that's Kris Benson shit. Convince me again why we need his veteran presence?

That's that. I fear Bay may be on the verge of another slump, however he has done a fine job of shortening the length of those slumps over the course of the season. Hopefully this one will just last a couple at-bats.

posted by Rory at 9:57 PM |

Kip Wells is AWEsome!

Kip Wells was great last night. I had tears of joy as I witnessed this man put it together. A man who has dealt with a lot of crap, some of it the teams' doing, and much more of it his own. They say Wells made a change in his delivery, moving to the other side of the rubber. I say he took a page out of his mound opponents book, but I won't argue with results.

What I will argue with is every single fan who holds this team to a double standard. You want young guys to get more playing time, then don't complain when the slump for a month. You want to showcase veterans for trade value, then don't complain when rookies sit. You want to wait on a guy cause he's finally is playing well, don't complain when he starts to suck again. All baseball players will eventually suck at baseball. It's inevitable.

I want Kip Wells to pitch for my team, not because I want to showcase him, but because he's a good pitcher, right now. Good pitchers have bad starts, bad months, bad years. Some of them even have bad careers, but Kip Wells has done nothing to show that is the case with him. You play good players and good things happen. Either you start to win or someone says, "Hey! I want that guy and I'm willing to make a lopsided trade to get him." It's a simple as that. If the guy isn't good then he shouldn't be playing or you get shit in return, that's how it works.

posted by Rory at 5:52 PM |
 
Friday, July 01, 2005

You Heard It Here First

I just saw an All-Star promo on ESPN. Not only did they make it blatantly obvious that Bay would be our All-Star selection, but they made every indication that he would also be participating in the annual Home-Run Derby.

It may have something to do with the global diversity flare going into the Derby this year, seeing as how Bay is Canadia's most prominent home-run threat. This is all just promotion for next years Baseball World Cup, which is dumb. They should just give the players two weeks off in the middle of the season to play in the Olympics every four years, like hockey. Oh well. As far as I know this is the first time a Pirate has been in the derby since I started following the Pirates in '96.

posted by Rory at 4:32 PM |

Today's Post-Gazette

courtesy of post-gazette.com
I had a dream this morning. Rob Mackowiak of all people had charged the mound, or spit on an umpire, or slapped a fan, or committed some other fineable/suspensionable offense. It was an incident that involved a couple other Pirate players but I don't remember who. Everyone's waiting for the hammer to come down when Selig holds a press conference:
"Due to their involvement in an incident occurring on July XX, 2005. Rob Mackowiak, Jimmy Blah, and Skippy McGoo will be executed by Major League Baseball."
My goodness the outcry was amazing. I had to be late for work so I could sleep in and see what happened. Of course we had to wait until we played in New York so the players could appeal and they made their case and it went on and on and on. I woke up before anything bad happened, but If Mack gets traded shortly, I'm considering myself clairvoyant.

At work I started reading about Perez's injury, after seeing this picture I was so filled with anger that I uncontrollably tried to poke his eyes out without realizing I was looking at a computer screen. I stubbed my right index finger pretty bad, which is going to hinder my blogging ability for three to six weeks. But you know, we all get angry. This is not the first time this has happened. I broke the volume on my TV because I threw the baseball I was holding at it after Perez's start in New York. I switched to a tennis ball, but after Perez's start against the Nationals in PNC, it bounced and hit me in the junk. At least I threw a strike right, haha? Let me say playfully that maybe I could just type through the pain. Or maybe I could DROP THE EGO SHTICK AND WORRY ABOUT PITCHING BETTER!

In a supposed misprint that has since been corrected, This release used the term "40-man rooster." I'm no color analyst, but is it really that much of a stretch to say that this team is comprised completely of chickens.

posted by Rory at 12:07 PM |
 
This is a blog about the Pittsburgh Pirates. My vision: to write about the games at the games.

Want to email me? Make it out to rory at bleache... you know the rest.