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Not This Ass My FriendI wanted to get this out before Fogg gets lit up today. I realized that when I said last week that Fogg and Williams were consistent, I could have very well been talking out of my ass. So I did a little research. Good thing I'm an engineer; better thing mlb.com stat pages copy and paste easily into Excel. The games started, average inning pitched, average earned runs allowed and ERA with standard deviation of the six main Pirate starters this season:Pitcher GS IP/GS ER/GS ERA Mark Redman 26 6.15 ± 1.44 3.27 ± 2.15 4.78 ± 3.33The standard deviation is a measure how far away any particular instance of data is from an average. For instance, using only this statistical information, I can say with about 70% confidence that Josh Fogg will go 5 to 6 2/3 innings and give up between 1.43 and 5.23 runs. That really isn't saying much. Doubling the deviation will go up to 95% confidence but then your looking at something like 0 to 7 runs, so what's the point? There is little value in using this data to predict anything, but it's a good indication of what you have come to expect from a pitcher. Small sample sizes inflate deviations so that explains the error on Duke's innings, however it makes his ER allowed even more impressive considering he's the most consistent on the team. So because of those small samples throw out Duke and Perez. Amongst the rest of the team, I'm right, the smaller the deviation the more consistent the pitcher. Williams and Fogg are the best on the team. I'm not saying they're great, I'm just saying you know what you're going to get. Unlike Redman, Wells, and Perez who show flashes of brilliance and then suck the next week. I also suggested that the Pirates look for someone consistent. It's a bitch typing all that out, so here's just the age, games, and ERA for some soon to be free agent right-handed pitchers with 4.00 - 4.75 ERAs: Pitcher Age GS ERA Jason Johnson 31 25 4.09 ± 3.00Scott Elarton is the best on the list. In fact he was the best in every category and amongst a few other people I also looked at. So I called up my trusted Cleveland Indians fan for a scouting report: this is the same guy who told me Matt Lawton was lazy and over-rated, so I trust him. His assessment, "He is VERY consistent. Every time I see it's his turn to pitch I think 'Shit! Elarton's pitching,' but normally it ends up alright." So am I suggesting that the Pirate's sign Scott Elarton? Well no. If they (and they should) get rid of Fogg, but are insistent on acquiring another righty, then Elarton would be my suggestion: he'll be cheaper then most and probably win you 10+ games. I'll keep an eye on him. But we don't need more pitching, we need the pitching we have to show more balance. I imagine that responsibility is on the coaches and the players. Since we obviously have nobody who understands this already, maybe it would be worthwhile to bring in someone that does. posted by Rory at 6:45 PM | |
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This is a blog about the Pittsburgh Pirates. My vision: to write about the games at the games. Want to email me? Make it out to rory at bleache... you know the rest. |
