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Sunday, May 15, 2005

Anti-Dumbf***eritis

There's another little syndrome going around the Pirates's pitchers, only this is a good one. I call it The Jon Lieber Effect. Named after, obviously, Jon Lieber, who in my dozen years following the Pirates is the pitcher who pioneered the idea. Somewhere in the middle of the 1998 season, mired in a funk that had him with a terrible record and an ERA over 5, Lieber decided to take a new approach. He would go out and pitch as quickly as possible. After each pitch he waited for the ball, got set, and pitched again. He didn't go on a tear, but he did pitch much better then average. That winter the Pirates rewarded his discovery by trading him to the Cubs for Brant Brown. Please pause and allow me to smack my head on my desk.

This change in approach resulted in a number of good things. Besides quickening the game he was keeping batters on their heels and the defense on their toes. He also found himself throwing a lot more strikes, which obviously meant less walks, and he just ate innings. Lieber does not have amazing stuff, I would liken him to Josh Fogg, but he discovered a way to get an advantage that had nothing to do with ability, and he forced the other team to beat him instead of beating himself.

This is notable because Mark Redman, Josh Fogg, and Dave Williams are all pitching with The Jon Lieber Effect. The three of them have been pitching well all season, but over their last seven starts they have gone 5-1 with a combined 1.98 ERA and averaged 7+ innings a start. Here's the kicker, over that time they have thrown 13.8 pitches per inning. Check out the numbers for yourself, they're fun to look at:
PITCHER  DATE GAME W L ERA  IP   H  R  ER BB SO NP -S  
Redman 5/04 @HOU 0 0 3.05 6.0 7 3 3 2 3 100-60
Williams 5/05 @ARI 1 0 3.94 7.0 5 2 1 3 3 98 -58
Fogg 5/07 @ARI 1 0 4.30 7.0 2 1 1 3 2 98 -61
Redman 5/09 @SFN 0 1 2.91 8.0 6 2 2 2 1 101-64
Williams 5/10 @SFN 1 0 3.79 6.0 5 2 2 1 1 60 -40
Fogg 5/11 @SFN 1 0 3.96 7.0 5 2 2 1 2 84 -56
Redman 5/14 MIL 1 0 2.44 9.0 4 0 0 0 5 113-76
-------------------------------------------------------
COMBINED 5 1 1.98 50.0 34 12 11 12 17 654-415
You would think this attitude would completely pervade pitchers throughout professional baseball, but it doesn't for various reasons. Strike out pitchers need to think a few pitches ahead, and guys with great stuff can do whatever they want. The issue arises with guys who think they have great stuff. Take the case of former Pirate and resident whiny ass Kris Benson who was quoted in today's PG after (surprisingly) having a rough start to the season, "I need to get my mind into what I'm doing [on] every pitch instead of losing track of what my goal is." You're goal is to win, if you forget that you shouldn't be pitching; what you need to do is take your mind off of every pitch and just throw the damn ball over the plate.

Forget about him though, he's in New York. As far as our pitchers, this won't last forever. Josh Fogg WILL go back to throwing meatballs up in the strike zone. Williams is still young and has mistakes yet to make. Redman might be able to keep it up for a while if he can keep up one statistic: in 8 starts this season, he has surrendered 1 HR. That is beyond good, I don't even know an adjective to describe how awesome that is. Kip Wells, who has more talent then all these guys, needs to take note.

posted by Rory at 9:04 AM |
 
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