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My Triumphant ReturnI love fangraphs.com. Whenever people argue for or against the clutch I always think about this site. Someone will say that at the end of the game all the runs count the same, and that's unequivocally true, but during the game they don't. Scoring a run in a scoreless game in the top of the 2nd increases your chances of winning a whole lot less then doing the same thing in the top of the 9th. WPA reflects this, and as you'd expect, the best players have typically had the highest WPA. If there was some sort of comparison of WPA, to what a player would be expected to contribute based on his offensive numbers, then that might be a good idea of just how "clutch" a player has been.Well some people a hell of a lot smarter then me did this, and came up with a stat called 'clutchiness.' I don't know enough about it to explain it, but the old clutchiness blog does a great job. What I do know, is that a positive number means you've made some clutch hits, negative means you've choked more then your fare share. David Ortiz, who had something like a hundred walk-off homeruns the last couple seasons had clutchiness of 2.91 and 1.48 in 2005 and 2006 respectively, that was good enough to lead the league by plenty in '05. And Jason Bay at -1.93 was third from the bottom amongst qualifying players. No one will argue that there's no such thing as clutch hitting, or clutch pitching for that matter. The argument stems from the belief that certain players are inherently better in clutch situations than others. I used to believe that, but reading enough blog entries on the topic has enlightened me to just how ridiculous it is to believe that a player can turn on this ability at will. "Clutch" does imply some sort of pressure, and I believe that some players just don't handle pressure well, but at this point, I'm pretty indifferent to the whole clutch or not argument. So Dejan's off-day piece examines the Pirates personal opinions on clutch, and how that affects strategy. Dejan has expressed a belief in the clutch before, but keeps a neutral opinion here. Charlie writes today about how idiotic it is for a team to base any decision off of "clutch" ability. But even if you accept that they have that philosophy, comparing what they believe to what clutchiness says they should believe, they're still idiots. First Paulino contends that the key to staving a Cardinals comeback last week was hitting Eckstein and not having to pitch to him. Instead the Pirates had to throw to Pujols with the bases loaded. Jack Wilson says, "Can't let Eckstein beat you there... Eckstein's clutch." Eckstein had a .02 clutchiness last year, Pujols led the freaking league in what I believe is a ridiculous 3.50. This even ignores that Pujols is infinitely better then Eckstein to begin with. In what universe, does it make more sense to face Pujols over Eckstein? The real bomb drop is Tracy believing "big hits" are the key to winning, and creating his lineup that way. If you are batting Jack Wilson second because you think he's clutch, you need to look at his .07 clutchiness last year, or his atrocious -0.91 from 2005. The only season Jack showed any significant clutch performance was a 1.17 his rookie season, when he batted 8th all year. Two years ago, when Humberto Cota seemed to get every clutch hit for the Pirates, his 1.27 was good enough for 20th in the league, yet every time he comes up to bat in the a 'clutch' situation under Jim Tracy he's pinch hit for. I'm not condoning making any decision because of a players supposed clutch ability. It's probably a good idea to pinch hit for Cota with the game on the line, cause Cota sucks. Gives me some hope that what Tracy's saying here about clutch doesn't really affect his game decisions. But it does make it seem like he is just making shit up: "Isn't that what makes teams good?" No, good teams have better players then the other team and don't screw up the easy stuff." Links: Clutchiness: What is Clutchiness, The Stat? Post-Gazette: Is there clutch? Or is it the reverse? Bucs Dugout: On "Clutch" posted by Rory at 5:19 PM | |
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Yes or No Would Suffice, You Can Even Nod"I would say, at this point in time, we've got some other people who probably fit better,"This is Littlefield's answer when a reporter asked him if he had any interest in Barry Bonds. How does DL still manage to give the most roundabout answer to the simplest, least PR affecting question anyone could ask in the city of Pittsburgh. Let's break it down: "I would say" - You are saying it so obviously you would say; this is redundant. "at this point in time" - The fact that the english grammar makes use of a past, present, and future tense makes this completely superfluous. "we've got some other people..." - All of this equals not interested. We'll ignore the use of the word probably which implies that he doesn't know that much about his own team So let's recap. When asked if there was interest in Barry Bonds, it took Dave Littlefield 17 words to say, "No." Links: Pirates Notebook: Bay is recovering from knee surgery posted by Rory at 7:11 PM | |
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That is ScaryIf you don't know, I live in Seattle. On the way to a halloween party this weekend I saw a guy in a referee's costume only this one had black and yellow stripes and had SOLD as the name. He was mocking the Steelers alleged buying of the Super Bowl evidenced by the suspect officiating. This would have been clever had I not heard any semblance of a joke similar to this before and it wasn't NINE MONTHS after the game.I've been telling people when they bring it up, and they still bring it up, that officiating is l2 on the top ten reasons you lost that game; behind a multitude of things including but not limited to: play calling, clock managements, tight ends that can't catch, and punters who can't drop one inside the twenty. To blame the loss soley on the officials is a disservice to anyone who thinks or wants to think intelligently about football. Bad calls are like clutch hits in baseball, you remember them because they had such a profound effect on the direction of the game, but they game is pretty well settled in whatever else happened on the field during the other two hours and fifty-five minutes. So imagine my surprise when Dan Freaking Rooney starts complaining about officials after last Sunday's Atlanta game. The most respected and admired football personality East of the Mississippi complaining about officiating. What an embarassment to all the Steeler fans out there. I'm having a hard enough time defending the Steelers based on their play on the field, I don't need you complicating the matters with comments off of it. Leave it to the rookie, Santonia Holmes to get it right when discussing what he thought might have been pass interference against the Raiders: The ref didn't make ta call and you have to live with it," Holmes said. "We had plenty of opportunities before that, too, to get in the end zone. One call really doesn't determine a game."A big hoopla was made about Holmes during all his indescretions between the draft and training camp, plus now with all the muffed punts, but after hearing this, at least the kid seems to get it. posted by Rory at 7:49 PM | |
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A Hotbed of Acting TalentDo the Pirates just have a thing with hiring actors as pitching coaches. First we had Pete Vukovich who played Clue "Ironhead" Heywood in Major League, "How's your wife and my kids?" Then Lanny tells us on the broadcasts that Jim Colborn consulted in Kevin Costner's For Love of the Game and played the 3rd Base Coach.I'm too lazy to see if Spin Williams is any of these people. posted by Rory at 5:24 PM | |
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It's About TimeI've been waiting for this all season and just want to save it for posterity. posted by Rory at 11:24 PM | |
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Cheers!Rajai Davis just got his first Major League hit. Congratulations. Here's to a monster Adrian Brown/Tike Redmon/Chris Duffy type September.Wait no, that's bad. posted by Rory at 9:17 PM | |
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Rory Angry, Rory Smash ThingsSmizik wrote this... (I don't know what it is. I wouldn't call it an article since it isn't a good representation of modern journalism) thing Monday listing a bunch of opinions he has about the various sports around town.It wasn't exactly riddled with fact or you know, informative. So I emailed him to call him out on it. I mentioned that the .391 the Pirates are hitting on the first pitch he quoted is meaningless out of the context of the rest of the league and it didn't matter as long as their OBP was 12th. He didn't bother to respond to that. He said in his article that "harsh criticisms of Pirates general manager Dave Littlefield for the trades he made last week are way off the mark." I said that the criticism I heard about the trades (mainly here, here, and here) seem pretty well merited to me. Now, I won't repeat verbatim what Bob responded to me with since I didn't ask for his permission to republish the email, and I hear this upsets some people. But he basically told me that most people know what criticism he's talking about and that because I live in Seattle I'm probably not aware. ... I'm mad. I'm not aware because I don't live in town. I probably read more about the Pirates then 95% of the people in Pittsburgh and I'm not aware? Maybe I'm not aware because I have to read the drivel from reporters like you who don't actually say what they're commenting on. And when someone actually emailed you about it you were so inclined to defend yourself that not only did you not explain what you were writing about, but you didn't even comment on the points that someone was trying to make. I'm unaware. This makes me want to go FJM style on his crappy columns. I never insulted you Mr. Smizik, in fact I went out of your way to bring points to your attention that you may or may not have considered. You went out of your way to tell me I'm ignorant. Thanks. I also provided evidence disputing his assertation that David Ross would have been a better talent to retain then Cota or Doumit - which he claimed he didn't do? - however, with his walk off homerun yesterday I genuinely loose some of my argument there. posted by Rory at 6:02 PM | |
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This is a blog about the Pittsburgh Pirates. My vision: to write about the games at the games. Want to email me? Make it out to rory at bleache... you know the rest. |
